Аналитическое обоснование противодействия угрозам в системных процессах

  • Andrey Ivanovich Kostogryzov Федеральный исследовательский центр "Информатика и управление" Российской академии наук http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0254-5202

Аннотация

Перспективная системная инженерия должна поддерживаться междисциплинарной теоретической основой, методами и инструментариями исследований, основанными на моделях, позволяющих лучше понимать все более сложные системы и решения по противодействию угрозам, принимаемые в условиях неопределенности. Целью настоящей работы является демонстрация аналитического подхода, основанного на применении риск-ориентированных методов, моделей и методик, рекомендованных стандартами системной инженерии.
Применение предлагаемого подхода, применимого к системам различного назначения, позволяет осуществлять:
- прогнозирование рисков, связанных с критичными сущностями рассматриваемой системы, интерпретация и анализ приемлемости получаемых результатов, включая сравнение с допустимыми рисками;
- определение существенных угроз и условий, способных при том или ином развитии событий в жизненном цикле негативно повлиять на качество и/или безопасность рассматриваемой системы;
- определение и обоснование в жизненном цикле системы упреждающих мер противодействия угрозам и условий, обеспечивающих желаемые свойства качества и/или безопасности рассматриваемой системы при задаваемых ограничениях в задаваемый период прогноза.
Подход проиллюстрирован примерами.

Сведения об авторе

Andrey Ivanovich Kostogryzov, Федеральный исследовательский центр "Информатика и управление" Российской академии наук

Заслуженный деятель науки Российской Федерации, главный научный сотрудник, доктор технических наук, профессор

Литература

1. Kostogryzov A.I., Nistratov A.A. About the Promising Directions of System Engineering Development. Modern Information Technologies and IT-Education. 2021;17(2):223-240. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.25559/SITITO.17.202102.223-240
2. Kostogryzov A., Nistratov A., Nistratov G. Analytical Risks Prediction. Rationale of System Preventive Measures for Solving Quality and Safety Problems. In: Sukhomlin V., Zubareva E. (eds.) Modern Information Technology and IT Education. SITITO 2018. Communications in Computer and Information Science. Vol. 1201. Cham: Springer; 2020. p. 352-364. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-46895-8_27
3. Kostogryzov A.I. The Review of Standardized Risk-Oriented Methods and Models to Ensure the Quality Assurance of the System. Modern Information Technologies and IT-Education. 2022;18(3):483-495. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.25559/SITITO.18.202203.483-495
4. Kostogryzov A.I., Nistratov A.A. Probabilistic Risk Prediction in System Engineering Standards. IT-Standard. 2023;(1):4-10. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) EDN: ZMRLUM
5. Kostogryzov A. I. Software Tools Complex for Evaluation of Information Systems Operation Quality (CEISOQ). In: Proceedings of the 34-th Annual Event of the Government Electronics and Information Association (GEIA). Dallas, USA: Engineering and Technical Management Symposium; 2000. p. 63-70.
6. Kostogryzov A., Stepanov P., Grigoriev L., Atakishchev O., Nistratov A., Nistratov G. Improvement of Existing Risks Control Concept for Complex Systems by the Automatic Combination and Generation of Probabilistic Models and Forming the Storehouse of Risks Predictions Knowledge. In: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Simulation and Modelling (AMSM). Phuket, Thailand: DEStech Publications Inc.; 2017. p. 279-283. https://doi.org/10.12783/dtetr/amsm2017/14857
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8. Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J. Modeling Reliability and Safety of Multistate Systems with Ageing Components. In: Reliability and Safety of Complex Technical Systems and Processes. Springer Series in Reliability Engineering. London: Springer; 2011. p. 1-52. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-85729-694-8_1
9. Kostogryzov A.I., et al. Mathematical Models and Applicable Technologies to Forecast, Analyze, and Optimize Quality and Risks for Complex Systems. In: Proceedings of the First International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety (ICTIS). Wuhan, China: American Society of Civil Engineers; 2011. p. 845-854. https://doi.org/10.1061/41177(415)107
10. Kostogryzov A., Nistratov G., Nistratov A. Some Applicable Methods to Analyze and Optimize System Processes in Quality Management. In: Ed. by Aized T. Total Quality Management and Six Sigma. London: IntechOpen; 2012. p. 127-196. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/46106
11. Kostogryzov A., Grigoriev L., Nistratov G., Nistratov A., Krylov V. Prediction and Optimization of System Quality and Risks on the Base of Modelling Processes. American Journal of Operations Research. 2013;3(1A):217-244. https://doi.org/10.4236/ajor.2013.31A021
12. Kołowrocki K., Soszyńska-Budny J. Prediction of critical infrastructures safety. In: The 10th International Conference on Digital Technologies 2014. Zilina, Slovakia: IEEE Press; 2014. p. 130-138. https://doi.org/10.1109/DT.2014.6868704
13. Zio E. An Introduction to the Basics of Reliability and Risk Analysis. World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd; 2007. 236 p. https://doi.org/10.1142/6442
14. Artemyev V., Kostogryzov A., Rudenko J., Kurpatov O., Nistratov G., Nistratov A. Probabilistic methods of estimating the mean residual time before the next parameters abnormalities for monitored critical systems. In: 2017 2nd International Conference on System Reliability and Safety (ICSRS). Milan, Italy: IEEE Press; 2017. p. 368-373. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICSRS.2017.8272850
15. Kostogryzov A., Grigoriev L., Golovin S., Nistratov A., Nistratov G., Klimov S. Probabilistic Modeling of Robotic and Automated Systems Operating in Cosmic Space. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Communication, Network and Artificial Intelligence (CNAI). Beijing, China: DEStech Publications Inc.; 2018. p. 298-303. https://doi.org/10.12783/dtcse/cnai2018/24174
16. Kostogryzov A., Grigoriev L., Kanygin P., Golovin S., Nistratov A., Nistratov G. The Experience of Probabilistic Modeling and Optimization of a Centralized Heat Supply System Which is an Object for Modernization. In: International Conference on Physics, Computing and Mathematical Modeling (PCMM). Shanghai: DEStech Publications Inc.; 2018. p. 93-97. https://doi.org/10.12783/dtcse/pcmm2018/23643
17. Artemyev V., Rudenko J., Nistratov G. Probabilistic Methods and Technologies of Risk Prediction and Rationale of Preventive Measures by Using "Smart Systems": Applications to Coal Branch for Increasing Industrial Safety of Enterprises. In: Ed. by Kostogryzov A. Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering. London: IntechOpen; 2018. p. 23-51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.75109
18. Kershenbaum V., Grigoriev L., Kanygin P., Nistratov A. Probabilistic Modeling Processes for Oil and Gas. In: Ed. by Kostogryzov A. Probabilistic Modeling in System Engineering. London: IntechOpen; 2018. p. 55-79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.74963
19. Kostogryzov A., Nistratov A., Nistratov G., Atakishchev O., Golovin S., Grigoriev L. The Probabilistic Analysis of the Possibilities to Keep "Organism Integrity" by Continuous Monitoring. In: Proceedings of the 2018 International Conference on Mathematics, Modelling, Simulation and Algorithms (MMSA 2018). Chengdu, China: Atlantis Press; 2018. P. 432-435. https://doi.org/10.2991/mmsa-18.2018.96
20. Kostogryzov A., Korolev V. Probabilistic Methods for Cognitive Solving of Some Problems in Artificial Intelligence Systems. In: Kostogryzov A., Korolev V. (eds.) Probability, Combinatorics and Control. London: IntechOpen; 2019. p. 3-34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.89168
21. Kostogryzov A.I. To the Methods of System Engineering: Probabilistic Approaches to the Analysis of the System Quality Management Process. Modern Information Technologies and IT-Education. 2022;18(2):227-240. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.25559/SITITO.18.202202.227-240
22. Kostogryzov A., Makhutov N., Nistratov A., Reznikov G. Probabilistic Predictive Modelling for Complex System Risk Assessments. In: Abdalla R., El-Diasty M., Kostogryzov A., Makhutov N.A. (eds.) Time Series Analysis ‒ New Insights. London: IntechOpen; 2022. p. 73-105. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.106869
23. Namiot D.E., Ilyushin E.A. On Cyber Risks of Generative Artificial Intelligence. International Journal of Open Information Technologies. 2024;12(10):109-119. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) EDN: JZCUQS
24. Kostogryzov A.I. On models and methods of probabilistic analysis of information security in standardized processes of system engineering. Voprosy kiberbezopasnosti = Cybersecurity issues. 2022;(6):71-82. (In Russ., abstract in Eng.) https://doi.org/10.21681/2311-3456-2022-6-71-82
25. Kostogryzov A., Avdonin R., Nistratov A. Methodical rationale of system solutions to reduce risks and retain them within acceptable limits for knowledge management process. Reliability: Theory & Applications. 2022;17(4):50-64. https://doi.org/10.24412/1932-2321-2022-471-50-64
Опубликована
2025-04-28
Как цитировать
KOSTOGRYZOV, Andrey Ivanovich. Аналитическое обоснование противодействия угрозам в системных процессах. Современные информационные технологии и ИТ-образование, [S.l.], v. 21, n. 1, p. 56-75, apr. 2025. ISSN 2411-1473. Доступно на: <http://sitito.cs.msu.ru/index.php/SITITO/article/view/1187>. Дата доступа: 24 aug. 2025 doi: https://doi.org/10.25559/SITITO.021.202501.56-75.
Раздел
Исследования и разработки в области новых ИТ и их приложений